LAFAYETTE, La. – Another powerful storm system is expected to move through the central United States this weekend. By Sunday, widespread showers and storms are likely. However, the ingredients will also be in place to produce some severe storms and heavy rain potential.
WHAT CAN YOU DO:
As the threat evolves, take a very nice afternoon on Saturday to ensure that all drainage ditches and culverts are clear of tree debris and garbage. This will ensure that heavy rain is able to drain more efficiently.
You also need to make sure that you have several ways of receiving severe weather alerts. Download our KLFY app now on your mobile phones to get all the latest information from our weekend Meteorologist Brooke Silverang and Chief Meteorlogist Heath Morton. Storms could develop rapidly Sunday afternoon and reliable severe alerts may become critical.
Be knowledgeable of your surroundings and area. Take the time to become familiar with the parish you live in, its location on a map, and the surrounding towns/roads that are near you.
As always, stay up to date with the latest forecast information as we continue through the weekend.
SUMMARY: Dangerous severe thunderstorms capable of strong tornadoes, extensive wind damage and hail are possible beginning Sunday morning east of I-35 in Texas and developing eastward across Louisiana throughout the day and into the night. Severe storms are also possible across the Arklatex during the day and into western Mississippi
TIMING:
Widespread storms will likely have already developed to our west by Sunday morning. As the upper level system moves into place and an area of low pressure develops at the surface, those storms will start moving into our area as early as midday Sunday The threat for severe storms will be highest through the afternoon and early evening. However, lingering showers and storms will remain possible through early Monday, especially for areas along the Mississippi River.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
The forecast confidence for this event will likely remain low until it actually unfolds. However, as we get closer to the event, the confidence is beginning to grow. Placement of the surface low will be critical for any severe weather potential. The farther north it tracks, the higher likelihood for severe weather farther north into our region. If the low tracks closer to the Gulf coast, some severe storms will remain possible but focused more for areas south I-20. It will only take a few factors to completely alter the forecast. We are keeping a close eye on it as we head through the day on Sunday.
RISKS:
The highest risk, for now, appears to be the threat for some heavy rainfall. Widespread amounts of 2-4″ of rain will be possible, with some locally higher amounts closer to 6″.
However, as the severe threat develops, wind shear values will likely be very high (due to our close proximity to the surface low). In turn, the threat for tornadoes would be our highest concern. Strong winds aloft will also present the threat for damaging wind gusts with any storms that can be sustained in this environment. At this time, while possible, hail appears to be a minor threat.
