If you’re like us, you heard a lot about how good Xavier was during the regular season. Analysts trumpeted the Musketeers as a Final Four contender, a potential No. 1 seed and one of the most dangerous and least well-known groups in the nation.

So is Xavier really for real?

Take a look at their statistics on paper, and you’d probably say, yeah. This team is legit. The Musketeers (27-5, 14-4/Big East) rank 18th in the country in points per game (81.3), 13th in rebounds (41 per), 27th in assists (16.4) and 153rd in points allowed (71).

They’ve got a roster loaded with capable scorers, led by 6-6 sophomore guard Trevon Bluiett (15.2 points, 6.2 boards and 2.3 assists per game). 6-5 freshman guard Edmond Sumner has also been a revelation (11.2 ppg, 3.5 apg), as has 6-10 senior James Farr (10.9 ppg, 7.8 apg).

This team has the look of an old-school Big East squad, with athleticism, tough defense and a hard-nosed mentality. Head coach Chris Mack has done a terrific job in taking this program to the next level, especially after losing Matt Stainbrook, the team’s best player last season.

How far will the Musketeers go?

Xavier should get past Weber State in Round 1, but that’s when things get interesting. A second-round matchup with Wisconsin or Pittsburgh is far from a sure thing, and Wisconsin is one of the hottest teams in America. Get by the Badgers, and Xavier will have to get ready for West Virginia’s “Press Virginia” defense in the Sweet 16. The Mountaineers reached the Big 12 championship game and have been underrated all season long.

After that, it’d likely be a matchup with North Carolina, Kentucky or Indiana in the Elite Eight, all games that could prove tough for X.

PREDICTION: You have to pick some second-round upsets in your bracket, so we went with Wisconsin over Xavier. It’s not that the Musketeers can’t make a deep run through March–it’s just that if we had to pick a top-two seed to lose in the first weekend, it’d be the Musketeers. Their draw is extremely tough, and it’d be an incredible story to see Chris Mack’s team make it to the Final Four.