The Lafayette area’s housing market, ablaze with record-setting sales in recent years, may face cooler prospects as effects of the oil and gas downturn linger or worsen here.

Nationwide Health of Housing Markets’ report, released this week, shows Lafayette near the bottom — No. 396 — of 400 metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. for housing market health. All 10 bottom markets are from four states that rely heavily on the energy sector for prosperity: Wyoming, Texas, Louisiana and West Virginia.

Nationwide senior economist Ben Ayers said the company study focuses on four economic drivers — employment, demographics, mortgage market and house prices — and considers not the present state of the market but its sustainability.

“Over the next year, over the next two years, how sustainable is (housing market) success?” he said. “Where is the housing sector going to go?”

In general, Ayers said, housing is healthy across the U.S. but slightly less so in the energy dependent states. He characterized Lafayette’s housing market outlook as “just below flat.”

“Because of oil and gas, there has been a big decline in job increases in unemployment. Lafayette has dropped 3,000 jobs in the last year — 2,500 in oil and gas,” he said. And a recent report from the national Energy Information Administration suggests things won’t improve soon.

Lafayette does not stand alone in Louisiana when it comes to dim housing prospects over the next couple of years. New Orleans-Metairie ranked No. 398; Houma-Thibodaux, 397; Hammond, 395 in the national study. Baton Rouge, Ayers said, fared slightly better because of stability in government and higher education jobs.

Bill Bacque, president of Van Eaton & Romero real estate in Lafayette, said the report is plausible, given the downturn in oil and gas jobs because of lingering low prices for oil. Completed home sales in August ran apace or slightly ahead of home sales in 2014, a record-setting year for residential real estate. But thus far in September, real estate in general is showing a significant decline from numbers recorded in the Lafayette area in September 2014.

“The economy drives the real estate industry,” Bacque said, and the local economy here, with unemployment creeping up and sales tax collections dipping over the last several months, suggests that the economy is not robust. He said he expects “corrections” in the local housing market.

Ayers said the four economic drivers showed more stability in summer — the study was done for numbers recorded through the second quarter — and that Lafayette’s employment numbers may have bottomed out.

Nationwide’s study, he said, seeks out stability in housing markets through what he called the “goldilocks index”: Economists are rating MSAs that are “not too hot, not too cold, but just right.”

Markets like Dallas and Denver, he said, were “too hot,” with sales and prices that are unlikely to sustain themselves.

Bacque said local homes sales may continue to do well for two reasons:

— Rents are high, and it makes sense to buy, if you can, rather than pay high rents.

— Interest rates remain low, making home purchases more reasonable.

Bacque said interest rates may rise incrementally, but will remain low enough to be attractive for homebuyers into the near future.Bottom 10 US metropolitan statistical areasNo. 400 Caspar, WyomingNo. 399 Sherman-Denison, TexasNo. 398 New Orleans-Metairie, LouisianaNo. 397 Houma-Thibodaux, LouisianaNo. 396 Lafayette, LouisianaNo. 395 Hammond, LouisianaNo. 394 San Angelo, TexasNo. 393 Dallas-Plano-Irving TexasNo. 392 Charleston West VirginiaNo. 391 Beckley, West Virginia